How Will We Know If the Civic Decade Succeeds?
Establishing the Baseline for America's Civic Future
America’s 250th anniversary invited us to look backward. It should also compel us to establish a baseline for the future.
A new national survey from the Cato Institute offers one of the fullest portraits yet of what Americans know, believe, fear, and hope at the beginning of the Civic Decade. Its findings are encouraging and unsettling. Americans retain a deep attachment to the country, its founding principles, and the Constitution. But that attachment often rests on a thin foundation of knowledge, it is distributed unevenly across generations and communities, and it does not always translate into a consistent commitment to constitutional restraint when those limits stand in the way of a desired political outcome.
The survey has understandably generated headlines about civic knowledge. But I believe its greatest value lies elsewhere. The Cato data should become the Civic Decade’s baseline for measuring progress.
To justify its promise, the initiative must become more than a series of commemorations. It should leave the country civically stronger. If the Civic Decade is truly a once-in-a-generation opportunity to strengthen the civic knowledge, constitutional culture, and institutions that sustain self-government, then we should be able to measure whether we are succeeding. Fifteen years from now, we should know far more than how many programs we offered, how many people attended, or how many resources were downloaded. We should know whether the country itself has changed.
The survey’s headline-grabbing finding gives us a sobering data point: only 53% of Americans correctly identified the adoption of the Declaration of Independence as the event commemorated by America’s 250th anniversary. Among Gen Z, that number fell to 39%.
But the more revealing gaps concern the purposes of our constitutional system. According to the Cato survey, only 41% identified the Constitution’s principal purpose as establishing and limiting government power. Just 54% knew that the Constitution creates three branches of government. Far more Americans recognized George Washington as the first president.
That distinction matters. Americans may know the symbols and personalities of the founding without understanding its constitutional logic. They may know the Constitution exists without grasping how divided powers, institutional restraints, and protected rights preserve freedom. Understanding how these ideas connect, not simply recalling historical facts, is the essence of civic knowledge.
At the same time, the Cato survey offers powerful evidence against the idea that Americans have abandoned the country or its founding ideals. 86% say they are grateful to be American. 79% are proud to be American. Large majorities view the founding and the Constitution favorably and believe the Constitution remains essential to protecting liberty.
This combination matters: limited knowledge coexists with substantial attachment. That should change how we describe the challenge. The public is not a blank slate. There is a reservoir of gratitude, belonging, and belief on which to build. But that attachment may be intuitive rather than informed, general rather than durable, and vulnerable to partisan pressure.
We do not have to persuade most Americans that freedom and the Constitution matter. We have to help them understand more deeply what those principles require, how the constitutional system works, how its promises have expanded over time, and what responsibilities fall to each generation that inherits them.
The Cato survey also points to another challenge that deserves far more attention: civic belonging.
According to the data, 71% of Americans believe the ideals and institutions of the founding are part of their inheritance. But that sense of ownership varies dramatically across generations and racial groups. It is significantly stronger among older Americans than among Gen Z, and stronger among white Americans than among Black and Hispanic Americans.
A constitutional democracy cannot flourish if its history and institutions feel like they belong to only some Americans. One of the Civic Decade’s most important goals should be to not only expand civic knowledge, but also deepen civic belonging. Do more Americans see themselves in our constitutional story? Do they understand both its achievements and its shortcomings? Do they recognize themselves as heirs to its promises and stewards of its future?
One of the most revealing findings in the Cato survey concerns constitutional culture rather than constitutional knowledge.
Most Americans support divided government, limits on political power, and acceptance of Supreme Court rulings. Yet a substantial share also believe it may be acceptable for a president they support to stretch the Constitution to achieve a preferred political outcome. It is relatively easy to support constitutional principles in the abstract. Constitutional culture is tested when those principles necessarily constrain our own political preferences. Favorability toward the Constitution is not the same as fidelity to it.
The survey also reinforces yet another insight that deserves greater attention. 77% of Americans agree that for a country to remain free, most people must try to be good, honest, and responsible.
That finding echoes one of the central premises of the Civic Decade. Constitutional democracy depends not only on constitutions, laws, and institutions, but also on the character and conduct of the people who bring them to life. The Constitution can divide power. It cannot compel restraint. The First Amendment can preserve space for disagreement. It cannot teach us how to continue sharing a country across profound differences.
The Cato survey is a valuable snapshot, but it also exposes the limits of how we currently measure civic learning. Measuring reach is not the same as measuring impact. The Civic Decade should challenge us to move beyond counting participation to instead understanding meaningful impact.
Between the Declaration’s 250th anniversary in 2026, the Constitution’s in 2037, and the Bill of Rights’ in 2041, we have an extraordinary opportunity to establish baselines, test approaches, compare interventions, follow participants over time, and adapt based on evidence.
No single institution can do this alone. Researchers, educators, museums, libraries, historic sites, schools, universities, philanthropies, and community organizations should build a shared Civic Decade research agenda, combining repeated national surveys with longitudinal and qualitative studies.
Most importantly, we should not wait until 2041 to revisit the questions the Cato survey asks today. We should ask them every year throughout the Civic Decade and measure whether sustained investments in civic learning are changing the answers.
Are more Americans developing a deeper understanding of how and why the Constitution limits power? Do more young people see the founding as part of their inheritance? Are gaps in civic belonging narrowing? Are more Americans willing to uphold constitutional principles even when those principles constrain their own side? Do more people believe the country’s best days can still be ahead?
Just as importantly, we should measure which civic learning experiences are producing these outcomes. Which approaches create lasting impact? For whom? Under what conditions?
By the time we reach the Constitution’s 250th anniversary in 2037 and the Bill of Rights’ 250th anniversary in 2041, we should be able to demonstrate not only whether America’s civic health has improved, but also which investments and experiences made that progress possible.